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Interstate variability in covid-19 infection and death rates: Do climate, health conditions, and distancing policies matter?

Arthur J Reynolds*

A comprehensive model to explain variation across states in COVID-19 outcomes indicated that improvements in social distancing, intermediate spring relative humidity and temperature, and lower concentrations of elderly residents were associated with lower rates of infection and mortality as well as changes over time. These influences were observed after accounting for testing prevalence. Findings indicate the benefits of continued preventive efforts by states and the value of tailoring resources at multiple levels of risk.